Mapping the Early Dispersal Patterns of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 Subvariants in the Absence of Travel Restrictions and Testing at the Borders in Europe.

The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants with enhanced transmissibility and capacity for immune evasion resulted in a recent pandemic wave that began in April-May of 2022. We performed a statistical phylogeographic study that aimed to define the cross-border transmission patterns of BA.4 and BA.5 at the earliest stages of virus dispersal. Our sample included all BA.4 and BA.5 sequences that were publicly available in the GISAID database through mid-May 2022. Viral dispersal patterns were inferred using maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees with bootstrap support. We identified South Africa as the major source of both BA.4 and BA.5 that migrated to other continents. By contrast, we detected no significant export of these subvariants from Europe. Belgium was identified as a major hub for BA.4 transmission within Europe, while Portugal and Israel were identified as major sources of BA.5. Western and Northern European countries exhibited the highest rates of cross-border transmission, as did several popular tourist destinations in Southern and Central/Western Europe. Our study provides a detailed map of the early dispersal patterns of two highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 omicron subvariants at a time when there was an overall relaxation of public health measures in Europe.

Global Distribution, Dispersal Patterns, and Trend of Several Omicron Subvariants of SARS-CoV-2 across the Globe.

Our study aims to describe the global distribution and dispersal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants. Genomic surveillance data were extracted from the CoV-Spectrum platform, searching for BA.1*, BA.2*, BA.3*, BA.4*, and BA.5* variants by geographic region. BA.1* increased in November 2021 in South Africa, with a similar increase across all continents in early December 2021. BA.1* did not reach 100% dominance in all continents. The spread of BA.2*, first described in South Africa, differed greatly by geographic region, in contrast to BA.1*, which followed a similar global expansion, firstly occurring in Asia and subsequently in Africa, Europe, Oceania, and North and South America. BA.4* and BA.5* followed a different pattern, where BA.4* reached high proportions (maximum 60%) only in Africa. BA.5* is currently, by Mid-August 2022, the dominant strain, reaching almost 100% across Europe, which is the first continent aside from Africa to show increasing proportions, and Asia, the Americas, and Oceania are following. The emergence of new variants depends mostly on their selective advantage, translated as enhanced transmissibility and ability to invade people with existing immunity. Describing these patterns is useful for a better understanding of the epidemiology of the VOCs' transmission and for generating hypotheses about the future of emerging variants.

Protection of vaccination versus hybrid immunity against infection with COVID-19 Omicron variants among Health-Care Workers.

BACKGROUND AIM: The Omicron COVID-19 variants BA.1* and BA.2* evade immune system leading to increased transmissibility and breakthrough infections. We aim to test the hypothesis that immunity achieved post COVID-19 infection combined with vaccination (hybrid immunity), is more effective against Omicron infection than vaccination alone in a health-care setting. METHODS: Data on regular pre-emptive PCR testing from all Health-Care Workers (HCWs) at Laiko University Hospital from 29th December 2020, date on which the national COVID-19 immunization program began in Greece, until 24th May 2022, were retrospectively collected and recorded. The infection rate was calculated after December 21st, 2021, when Omicron was the predominant circulating variant in Greece, as the total number of infections (positive PCR COVID-19 test regardless of symptoms) divided by the total person-months at risk. RESULTS: Of 1,305 vaccinated HCWs who were included in the analysis [median age of 47 (IQR: 36, 56) years, 66.7 % women], 13 % and 87 % had received 2 or 3 vaccine doses (full and booster vaccination), respectively. A COVID-19 infection had occurred in 135 of 1,305 of participants prior to Omicron predominance. Of those 135 HCWs with hybrid immunity only 13 (9.6 %) were re-infected. Of the 154 and 1,016 HCWs with full and booster vaccination-induced immunity, respectively, 71 (46.1 %, infection rate 13.4/100 person-months) and 448 (44.1 %, infection rate 12.2/100 person-months) were infected during the follow up period. No association between gender or age and COVID-19 infection was found and none of the participants had a severe infection or died. CONCLUSIONS: Hybrid immunity confers higher protection by almost 5-fold compared to full or booster vaccination for COVID-19 infection with the Omicron variant among HCWs who are at high risk of exposure. This may inform public health policies on how to achieve optimal immunity in terms of the timing and mode of vaccination.

Vaccination Hesitancy among Health-Care-Workers in Academic Hospitals Is Associated with a 12-Fold Increase in the Risk of COVID-19 Infection: A Nine-Month Greek Cohort Study.

Health-Care-Workers (HCWs) are considered at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We sought to compare rates and severity of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among vaccinated and unvaccinated HCWs conducting a retrospective cohort study in two tertiary Academic Hospitals, namely Laiko and Attikon, in Athens, Greece. Vaccinated by BNT162b2 Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA vaccine and unvaccinated HCWs were included and data were collected between 1 January 2021 and 15 September 2021. Overall, 2921 of 3219 HCWs without a history of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were fully vaccinated during the study period (90.7% at each Hospital). Demographic characteristics were comparable between 102/2921 (3.5%) vaccinated and 88/298 (29.5%) unvaccinated HCWs with COVID-19, although age and occupation differed significantly. None were in need of hospital admission in the vaccinated Group, whereas in the unvaccinated Group 4/88 (4.5%) were hospitalized and one (1.1%) died. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that lack of vaccination was an independent risk factor for COVID-19 with an odds ratio 11.54 (95% CI: 10.75-12.40). Vaccination hesitancy among HCWs resulted to highly increased COVID-19 rates; almost one in three unvaccinated HCWs was SARS-CoV-2 infected during the 9-month period. The absolute need of vaccination of HCWs, including boosting dose, is highlighted. Evidence should be used appropriately to overcome any hesitancy.

Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Greece Reveals Low Rates of Onward Virus Transmission after Lifting of Travel Restrictions Based on Risk Assessment during Summer 2020.

The novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly during the first months of 2020 and continues to expand in multiple areas across the globe. Molecular epidemiology has provided an added value to traditional public health tools by identifying SARS-CoV-2 clusters or providing evidence that clusters based on virus sequences and contact tracing are highly concordant. Our aim was to infer the levels of virus importation and to estimate the impact of public health measures related to travel restrictions to local transmission in Greece. Our phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses included 389 full-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected during the first 7 months of the pandemic in Greece and a random collection in five replicates of 3,000 sequences sampled globally, as well as the best hits to our data set identified by BLAST. Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed by the maximum likelihood method, and the putative source of SARS-CoV-2 infections was inferred by phylogeographic analysis. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the presence of 89 genetically distinct viruses identified as independent introductions into Greece. The proportion of imported strains was 41%, 11.5%, and 8.8% during the three periods of sampling, namely, March (no travel restrictions), April to June (strict travel restrictions), and July to September (lifting of travel restrictions based on thorough risk assessment), respectively. The results of phylogeographic analysis were confirmed by a Bayesian approach. Our findings reveal low levels of onward transmission from imported cases during summer and underscore the importance of targeted public health measures that can increase the safety of international travel during a pandemic. IMPORTANCE Our study based on current state-of-the-art molecular epidemiology methods suggests that virus screening and public health measures after the lifting of travel restrictions prevented SARS-CoV-2 onward transmission from imported cases during summer 2020 in Greece. These findings provide important data on the efficacy of targeted public health measures and have important implications regarding the safety of international travel during a pandemic. Our results can provide a roadmap about prevention policy in the future regarding the reopening of borders in the presence of differences in vaccination coverage, the circulation of the virus, and the presence of newly emergent variants across the globe.

Temporal Dominance of B.1.1.7 over B.1.354 SARS-CoV-2 Variant: A Hypothesis Based on Areas of Variant Co-Circulation.

Some emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants raise concerns due to their altered biological properties. For both B.1.1.7 and B.1351 variants, named as variants of concern (VOC), increased transmissibility was reported, whereas B.1.351 was more resistant to multiple monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), as well as convalescent and vaccination sera. To test this hypothesis, we examined the proportion of VOC over time across different geographic areas where the two VOC, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, co-circulate. Our comparative analysis was based on the number of SARS-CoV-2 sequences on GISAID database. We report that B.1.1.7 dominates over B.1.351 in geographic areas where both variants co-circulate and the B.1.1.7 was the first variant introduced in the population. The only areas where B.1.351 was detected at higher proportion were South Africa and Mayotte in Africa, where this strain was associated with increased community transmission before the detection of B.1.1.7. The dominance of B.1.1.7 over B.1.351 could be important since B.1.351 was more resistant to certain mAbs, as well as heterologous convalescent and vaccination sera, thus suggesting that it may be transmitted more effectively in people with pre-existing immunity to other VOC. This scenario would lessen the effectiveness of vaccine and urge the need to update them with new strains.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection Is Asymptomatic in Nearly Half of Adults with Robust Anti-Spike Protein Receptor-Binding Domain Antibody Response.

Between June and November 2020, we assessed plasma antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) nucleocapsid protein in 4996 participants (aged 18-82 years, 34.5% men) from the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens. The weighted overall prevalence was 1.6% and monthly prevalence correlated with viral RNA-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in Greece, in the same period. Notably, 49% of seropositive cases reported no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection-related clinical symptoms and 33% were unsuspected of their previous infection. Additionally, levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies against the spike-protein receptor-binding domain were similar between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, irrespective of age and gender. Using Food and Drug Administration Emergency Use Authorization-approved assays, these results support the need for such studies on pandemic evaluation and highlight the development of robust humoral immune responses even among asymptomatic individuals. The high percentage of unsuspected/asymptomatic active cases, which may contribute to community transmission for more days than that of cases who are aware and self-isolate, underscores the necessity of measures across the population for the efficient control of the pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 Molecular Transmission Clusters and Containment Measures in Ten European Regions during the First Pandemic Wave.

BACKGROUND: The spatiotemporal profiling of molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) using viral genomic data can effectively identify transmission networks in order to inform public health actions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spread. METHODS: We used whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences derived from ten European regions belonging to eight countries to perform phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis. We developed dedicated bioinformatics pipelines to identify regional MTCs and to assess demographic factors potentially associated with their formation. RESULTS: The total number and the scale of MTCs varied from small household clusters identified in all regions, to a super-spreading event found in Uusimaa-FI. Specific age groups were more likely to belong to MTCs in different regions. The clustered sequences referring to the age groups 50-100 years old (y.o.) were increased in all regions two weeks after the establishment of the lockdown, while those referring to the age group 0-19 y.o. decreased only in those regions where schools' closure was combined with a lockdown. CONCLUSIONS: The spatiotemporal profiling of the SARS-CoV-2 MTCs can be a useful tool to monitor the effectiveness of the interventions and to reveal cryptic transmissions that have not been identified through contact tracing.

A review of the impact of weather and climate variables to COVID-19: In the absence of public health measures high temperatures cannot probably mitigate outbreaks.

The new severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic was first recognized at the end of 2019 and has caused one of the most serious global public health crises in the last years. In this paper, we review current literature on the effect of weather (temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind, etc.) and climate (temperature as an essential climate variable, solar radiation in the ultraviolet, sunshine duration) variables on SARS-CoV-2 and discuss their impact to the COVID-19 pandemic; the review also refers to respective effect of urban parameters and air pollution. Most studies suggest that a negative correlation exists between ambient temperature and humidity on the one hand and the number of COVID-19 cases on the other, while there have been studies which support the absence of any correlation or even a positive one. The urban environment and specifically the air ventilation rate, as well as air pollution, can probably affect, also, the transmission dynamics and the case fatality rate of COVID-19. Due to the inherent limitations in previously published studies, it remains unclear if the magnitude of the effect of temperature or humidity on COVID-19 is confounded by the public health measures implemented widely during the first pandemic wave. The effect of weather and climate variables, as suggested previously for other viruses, cannot be excluded, however, under the conditions of the first pandemic wave, it might be difficult to be uncovered. The increase in the number of cases observed during summertime in the Northern hemisphere, and especially in countries with high average ambient temperatures, demonstrates that weather and climate variables, in the absence of public health interventions, cannot mitigate the resurgence of COVID-19 outbreaks.

Phylogenetic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Data Is Difficult.

Numerous studies covering some aspects of SARS-CoV-2 data analyses are being published on a daily basis, including a regularly updated phylogeny on nextstrain.org. Here, we review the difficulties of inferring reliable phylogenies by example of a data snapshot comprising a quality-filtered subset of 8,736 out of all 16,453 virus sequences available on May 5, 2020 from gisaid.org. We find that it is difficult to infer a reliable phylogeny on these data due to the large number of sequences in conjunction with the low number of mutations. We further find that rooting the inferred phylogeny with some degree of confidence either via the bat and pangolin outgroups or by applying novel computational methods on the ingroup phylogeny does not appear to be credible. Finally, an automatic classification of the current sequences into subclasses using the mPTP tool for molecular species delimitation is also, as might be expected, not possible, as the sequences are too closely related. We conclude that, although the application of phylogenetic methods to disentangle the evolution and spread of COVID-19 provides some insight, results of phylogenetic analyses, in particular those conducted under the default settings of current phylogenetic inference tools, as well as downstream analyses on the inferred phylogenies, should be considered and interpreted with extreme caution.

Seroprevalence of Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among the Personnel and Students of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece: A Preliminary Report

Due to early implementation of public health measures, Greece had low number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 severe incidents in hospitalized patients. The National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), especially its health-care/medical personnel, has been actively involved in the first line of state responses to COVID-19. To estimate the prevalence of antibodies (Igs) against SARS-CoV-2 among NKUA members, we designed a five consecutive monthly serosurvey among randomly selected NKUA consenting volunteers. Here, we present the results from the first 2500 plasma samples collected during June-July 2020. Twenty-five donors were tested positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 Igs;thus, the overall seroprevalence was 1.00%. The weighted overall seroprevalence was 0.93% (95% CI: 0.27, 2.09) and varied between males [1.05% (95% CI: 0.18, 2.92)] and females [0.84% (95% CI: 0.13, 2.49)], age-groups and different categories (higher in participants from the School of Health Sciences and in scientific affiliates/faculty members/laboratory assistants), but no statistical differences were detected. Although focused on the specific population of NKUA members, our study shows that the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 Igs for the period June-July 2020 remained low and provides knowledge of public health importance for the NKUA members. Given that approximately one in three infections was asymptomatic, continuous monitoring of the progression of the pandemic by assessing Ig seroprevalence is needed.